Meeting Summary – 10/16/24 RPG Meeting

1 – Antitrust Admonition

2 – Miscellaneous Updates – ERCOT

3 – EIR Status Update – Delaware Basin Stages 3 and 4 Project – ERCOT – Tanzila Ahmed

EIR – Oncor – Delaware Basin Stages 3 and 4 Project – Status Update – RPG October 2024

• Tanzila Ahmed presented the EIR status update for the Oncor Delaware Basin stages 3 and 4 project.
• The project is a Tier 1 project with an estimated cost of $202.2 million.
• Estimated in-service date is 6/1/2027, and is subject to change..
• Project need and solution were identified in the 2019 Delaware Basin Load Integration project Load interconnection study.
• Steady state power flow analysis was conducted to identify and evaluate project options.
• The project resolved 20 pre-project voltage violations and four power flow issues.
• Congestion analysis showed no new congestion for the preferred option.
• ERCOT recommends Oncor’s proposed option.
• Construction includes a new 345-kV double circuit line and a 138-kV line.
• Final EIR report will be posted in November 2024.
• Recommendations for TAC and R&M meetings are planned for November and December 2024, respectively.
• No questions were posed following the presentation.

4 – EIR Status Update – Venus Switch to Sam Switch 345-kV Line Project – ERCOT – Sarah Gunasekera

EIR ONCOR Venus Switch to Sam Switch Project OCT Update

• The Venus Switch to Sam Switch 345-kV line project is a tier one project submitted to RPG in June; estimated cost is $118.9 million, and completion is expected by May 2026.
• The project addresses post contingency thermal overloads and does not require a CCN.
• ERCOT is conducting an independent review of the project, specifically in Hill and Ellis counties, focusing on the Venus switch to Sam Switch double circuit 345-kV line.
• Transmission updates have been made in terms of approved and studied RPG projects with in-service dates prior to May 2026.
• Generation and confirmed loads in the north and north central weather zones have been updated.
• Updated preliminary reliability analysis shows thermal overloads in N-1, G-1, and X-1 cases.
• Three project options have been proposed, all solving thermal violations with no additional thermal or voltage violations under various conditions.
• Further assessments include long-term load serving capability, cost and feasibility assessments, generation addition and load scaling sensitivity analyses, subsynchronous resonance assessment, and congestion analysis.
• Updates will be provided at future RPG meetings and the final project recommendation is expected in quarter four of this year.

5 – EIR Status Update – Wilmer 345/138-kV Switch Project – ERCOT – Ying Li

EIR – Oncor – Wilmer 345138-kV Switch Project – Status Update – RPG Oct2024

• ERCOT’s Ying Li presented an independent review status update for the Oncor Wilmer switch project.
• The Wilmer project is a tier-one project in Dallas County with a cost estimate of $158 million, requiring a CCN with an estimated in service date of May 26.
• The project aims to address summer overloads at the Wilmer substation, driven by a large new contracted load.
• ERCOT and Oncor provided a project overview and study scope at the September RPG meeting.
• ERCOT conducted a reliability need analysis based on the final 2023 RTP 2028 North/North-Central Summer peak case.
• Results showed unsolvable contingencies under certain conditions and various thermal and voltage violations.
• Three options were evaluated to address reliability needs:
  • Option 1 (Oncor Proposed): Expanding Wilmer substation, installing transformers, capacitors, double circuits, and upgrades, which resolved all violations.
  • Option 2: Looping the Watermill to Tricorner circuit at Wilmer, left one overload unresolved.
  • Option 3: Looping the Watermill to West Levee line at Wilmer, also left one overload unresolved.
• Additional evaluations and analysis are ongoing, with a final recommendation expected by December.
• No questions or comments followed the presentation.

6 – Hartring to Upland 138-kV Line and Benedum Autotransformer Addition Project Overview – Oncor

24RPG024 Oncor and LCRATSC RPG Overview for ERCOT 10-16-2024

• Oncor and LCRA are collaborating on an RPG project to address load growth and voltage issues in Oncor’s southern Stanton Loop area.
• Oncor’s project includes a 9-mile, 138-kV double circuit line and reconfiguration of the Ringo station, with a cost of $25 million.
• The project area is experiencing thermal and voltage violations due to significant load growth.
• LCRA plans to install a new 345-kV source and autotransformers, with a project cost of $69 million.
• The LCRA portion will strengthen the 138-kV network and increase resiliency and voltage support.
• The total estimated project cost is $94 million, categorized as a tier two project with an expected review completion by Q1 2025.
• Construction is anticipated to start in 2025, with Oncor’s portion taking 2-3 years.
• The project benefits include mitigating voltage and thermal violations and supporting long-term load requirements.
• A key question addressed was confirmation of the Benedum station’s location on the LCRA 345-kV portion.
• Oncor is considering future upgrades, including possible additional 345-kV installations at Catclaw.

7 – ERCOT Independent Review Scope Hartring to Upland 138-kV Line and Benedum Autotransformer Addition Project – ERCOT – Tanzila Ahmed

EIR ONCOR LCRA Hartring to Upland 138kV Line and Benedum Autotransformer Addition Project Scope RPG October 2024

• Reviewed a map showing voltage and thermal violations in specified areas.
• Discussed projects by Oncor and LCRA involving new circuits and transformer additions.
• Study area focuses on the far west weather zone, with monitoring of nearby counties.
• Study will use the final 2023 RTP 2026 summer peak load case for adjustments.
• Projects in-service before summer 2025 will be included, while unapproved projects are excluded.
• New generation resources meeting certain conditions are added to the study base case.
• Compliance with 2024 RTP methodology for generation dispatch.
• Load levels maintained per 2023 RTP; oil, gas, and new confirmed loads will be updated.
• Contingency planning includes analysis of specific power units and transformers.
• Evaluation of alternatives for project needs and reliability requirements.
• Planned maintenance outages and cost estimates will be reviewed.
• Potential congestion analysis for proposed upgrades.
• Status updates to be provided at future RPG meetings.
• Final recommendations are scheduled for completion in early 2025.

8 – Tredway 138-kV Switch and Expanse to Tredway 138-kV 2nd Circuit Project Overview – Oncor – Eduardo Camilla

Oncor Tredway 138 kV Switch and Expanse-Tredway 138 kV 2nd Circuit Project RPG Overview for ERCOT 10-16-2024

• Eduardo Camilla introduced the Tredway 138 kV switch project for Oncor to address load growth in the Midland basin.
• The project aims to mitigate post contingency low voltage and thermal overload issues within the Oncor system.
• Oncor proposed a RPG project entailing 28.8 miles of 138 kV transmission line rebuild with double circuit cable structures.
• The project includes 3.6 miles of new 138 kV lines and re-terminating existing lines at Vealmoor and Tredway.
• A new Tredway 138-kV switching station will be built, along with capacitor banks expansions, totaling up to $119.03 million.
• The project spans Martin, Howard, and Borden counties.
• Construction is expected to start in 2025 and complete by 2026, with no CCN applications anticipated.
• There was a discussion regarding whether the project was included in the Permian Basin reliability plan.
• Mark inquired if the project was part of the Permian Basin plan, and it was clarified that these are additional projects.
• Robert and Oncor agree on providing clarity regarding project inclusion in future presentations.
• Sarah from ERCOT was invited to discuss the scope presentation following Eduardo’s overview.

9 – ERCOT Independent Review Scope Tredway 138-kV Switch and Expanse to Tredway 138-kV 2nd Circuit Project – ERCOT – Sarah Gunasekera

EIR ONCOR Tredway Scope OCT

• Presentation on the Oncor Tredway 138-kV switch and expansion to the Tredway 138-kV second circuit project.
• Project addresses post-contingency thermal overloads and voltage violations on the 138-kV line between Vealmoor to Buzzard Draw.
• Project involves expanding the 138-kV line to a double circuit and adding the Tredway substation near Vealmoor.
• Study focuses on west and far west weather zones, specifically Martin, Howard, and Borden counties.
• 2023 RTP 2026 summer peak west Far West case used for analysis.
• New generations meeting planning guide section 6.9(1) conditions and approved loads in the study area added to the case.
• Focused on criteria such as N-1, G-1, and X-1 one for the project.
• Study procedures include need analysis, ERCOT alternatives, maintenance outage planning, load serving, generation addition, load scaling, resonance assessment, and congestion analysis.
• Future updates and final recommendations scheduled for quarter one of 2025.
• No comments or questions from the audience after the presentation.

10 – 2024 Long-Term System Assessment LTSA Transmission Expansion Analysis Update for Current Trends – ERCOT – Pengwei Du

2024 Long-Term System Assessment (LTSA) Current Trends_Transmission_v4.1

• Discussed the 2024 LTSA Transmission Expansion Analysis using current trends.
• Explained the LTSA study framework, starting with scenario development followed by generation capacity expansion analysis using a zonal model.
• The first iteration does not consider transmission limitations; the second iteration uses a three-zone model focusing on West Texas airport and panhandle interface limits.
• Results indicate a need for 88 gigawatts of new resources by 2039, broken down by types such as storage, solar, wind, etc.
• Analysis includes mapping new resources to nodal models and assessing transmission needs and congestion costs.
• Congestion costs were estimated for 2034 ($2.2 billion) and 2039 ($3.2 billion), with significant costs from West Texas airport interface and other areas.
• Next steps for ERCOT include evaluating transmission projects to improve efficiency and address congestion.
• Engaged in Q&A discussing load growth, economic model assumptions, feasibility of generation sites, and possible future inclusions of load projections.
• Suggestions included providing more comprehensive tables summarizing generation and load, historical context of LTSA, and considering factors like SMRs and geographic feasibility in future analyses.

11 – ERCOT Extra-High Voltage Infrastructure Update – ERCOT

ERCOT EHV Infrastructure Initiative Update October 2024

• ERCOT is discussing their Extra-High Voltage (EHV) infrastructure plans, focusing on the 765 kV plan divided into two phases: initial build (Phase 1) and future expansion (Phase 2) beyond 2030.
• The purpose is to optimize the plan for 2030 load projections by comparing standard RPG assessments with EHV strategies.
• Two proposals for the 765 kV plan are being developed, which include cost, system loss comparisons, and analysis of system stability and congestion by mid-January 2025.
• An update could be expected in November, with more finalized plans by December. Workshop facilitation is also planned for further stakeholder discussions.
• Questions arise around compliance requirements for both 345 and 765 kV studies, cautious about using ‘limited’ in describing the analysis scope.
• Clarifications were made about capital cost considerations and analysis depth for both the 345 kV and 765 kV infrastructure, conveying that detailed feasibility and cost studies will be forthcoming.
• Clarification on shunt reactors needed for 765 kV plan, indicating a baseline assumption of necessities despite not completing all feasibility analyses.
• Discussions around handling redundancy criteria and maintenance for 765 kV alongside the need for making generation assumptions were noted.
• Feedback processes and internal ERCOT discussions will inform the decisions on regional planning group submissions as well as for evaluating 345 vs. 765 kV plans.
• Highlighted bandwidth and timing constraints in conducting comprehensive feasibility analyses, particularly concerning construction feasibilities for TSP’s.

12 – Long-Term Load Forecast update – ERCOT – Sam Morris

Long Term Pre-Liminary Schedule_RPG

• ERCOT plans to modify the schedule of the long-term load forecast updates. This is due to various contracts, officer letters and study loads.
• The updated forecast will include electric vehicles, photovoltaic, large flexible load forecasts, and will be presented mainly for the SAWG and CDR.
• ERCOT will conduct a survey asking participants for additional input, aimed for a late March or early April update.
• There is a strong focus on improving transparency and accuracy, with a suggestion to provide updated load type charts on a quarterly basis.
• ERCOT is working on consolidating data requests into one request to minimize burden on participants, possibly developing a portal for information transfer.
• Clarification was made that the term ‘large flexible load forecast’ includes crypto data centers, not AI data centers.
• Request for a comprehensive process for collecting officer letters with appropriate market notices to avoid miscommunication seen previously.
• The potential for large loads to have on-site generation is being considered in upcoming surveys.
• The percentage curtailment for large flexible loads might increase, based on observed behaviors during peak times.
• ERCOT plans to release the next survey around January 2 to incorporate data regarding co-located generation.

13 – Adjourn – ERCOT